Journal of Hunan Ecological Science

【Objective】To quantify the impact of land use change on carbon storage in Tangshan City, identify its main driving factors, and provide scientific basis for urban land use optimization, carbon sink enhancement, and the achievement of “ dual carbon” goals. 【Method】Three periods of land use data from 2012, 2017, and 2022 were used to calculate carbon storage based on the model of Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST), and combined with geographic detectors to analyze the impact of natural factors and some socio-economic variables ( such as population and nighttime lighting) on the spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon storage. 【Result】From 2012 to 2022, the carbon storage in Tangshan City continued to decrease, with a cumulative decrease of 3. 88 Tg. Among them, the reduction in carbon storage from cultivated land to construction land reached 3. 55 Tg, accounting for the highest proportion of land use changes that caused carbon storage reduction. Land use change was the main reason for the decline in carbon storage. Over the past 10 years, a large amount of forest land had been converted to arable land, resulting in a weakened carbon storage capacity and a de- crease in carbon storage per unit area, making Tangshan City an overall carbon source; although the con- version of water bodies into construction land increased some carbon storage, it had not yet filled the gap in carbon emissions. The geographical detection results indicated that the main driving factors for the spa- tiotemporal differentiation of carbon storage in the three periods are PM2. 5, PM10, and temperature; the explanatory power of population and carbon dioxide was slightly weaker. 【Conclusion】The land use pat- tern will affect the changes in carbon storage. The large-scale conversion of forest and cultivated land to construction land in Tangshan City has led to a continuous decline in carbon storage, showing a clear spa- tial distribution characteristic of “high in the north and low in the south”; carbon storage is influenced by both urbanization and the natural environment, with PM2. 5, PM10, and temperature being the main driv- ing factors; optimizing land use patterns and controlling the expansion of construction land are key paths to enhancing regional carbon sequestration capacity.

Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST); carbon storage; land use change; urbanization; driving factors