Modern Social Science Research

Central Asia is one of the regions in the world where transboundary water resources disputes are relatively prominent. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the allocation of water resources in river basins shifted from unified planning to a game of interests among sovereign states, making water security a core issue affecting regional stability and development. This paper introduces the security dilemma theory to analyze the manifestations and causes of transboundary water governance challenges in Central Asia, evaluates the effectiveness and limitations of existing cooperation mechanisms, and proposes optimization pathways. The study reveals that transboundary water governance in Central Asia exhibits typical characteristics of a security dilemma, specifically manifested in zero-sum game water distribution, deflection of responsibility for water pollution and the tragedy of the commons in ecological crises. The root causes lie in the contradiction between sovereignty claims and basin-wide integrity, misaligned economic structures and interests, insufficient institutional supply, and interference by external powers. Future solutions require improving the basin governance rule system, deepening multilateral practical cooperation under the Belt and Road framework, and steering regional water governance from sovereignty-based confrontation toward collaborative outcomes, thereby safeguarding Central Asian water security to foster a regional community with a shared future.

Central Asia; Transboundary water resources; Security dilemma; Water governance