Journal of Engineering Research

With the intensification of climate change, water supply to run-of-river hydropower stations in Southwest China has shown significant fluctuations, directly impacting the stability and predictability of power generation. This study analyzes the mechanisms by which temperature, precipitation, and runoff variations affect hydropower output through historical hydrological data and climate scenario simulations. The research demonstrates that frequent climatic anomalies have caused marked changes in seasonal runoff distribution, resulting in increased power generation during flood periods and decreased output in dry seasons, with overall annual power generation exhibiting regionalized fluctuation trends. The evaluation results provide quantitative evidence for optimizing hydropower station dispatching and energy management, contributing to improved utilization efficiency of hydropower resources and enhanced system resilience.

Climate change; Run-of-river hydropower; Power generation; Water resource management; Southwest China