农业新质生产力对农业碳排放的影响机制分析

Analysis of the impact mechanism of new-quality agricultural productivity on agricultural carbon emissions

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DOI 10.12208/j.jafs.20250007
刊名
Journal of Agriculture and Food Science
年,卷(期) 2025, 5(1)
作者
作者单位

重庆师范大学 重庆

摘要
实现农业的低碳绿色转型,是达成“双碳”目标的重要途径。本文基于2012-2022年中国省级面板数据,采用GMM模型、中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型实证检验了农业新质生产力对农业碳排放的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明:农业新质生产力显著降低了农业碳排放,在考虑内生性和其他稳健性检验的情况下得出结论仍然成立;农业土地规模经营、农业科技创新和农业产业结构高级化在农业新质生产力影响农业碳排放的过程中起部分中介作用;农业新生产力在不同功能分区下都显著降低了农业碳排放;空间计量模型的回归结果表明:农业新质生产力对农业碳排放具有正向空间溢出效应,且随着农业新质生产力发展水平的逐步提高,其碳减排效应不断增强。
Abstract
Achieving a low-carbon and green transformation in agriculture is a crucial pathway to realizing China’s “dual carbon” goals. Based on provincial panel data from 2012 to 2022, this paper empirically examines the impact and mechanism of new-quality agricultural productivity on agricultural carbon emissions using the GMM model, mediation effect model, and spatial Durbin model. The results show that new-quality agricultural productivity significantly reduces agricultural carbon emissions, and the conclusion remains robust after addressing endogeneity and conducting various robustness tests. Land scale management, agricultural technological innovation, and the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure play partial mediating roles in this relationship. The productivity effect remains significant across different functional zones. Moreover, the spatial econometric model indicates a positive spatial spillover effect, with the emission-reduction impact intensifying as the level of new-quality agricultural productivity improves.
关键词
农业新质生产力;农业碳排放总量;中介效应;空间杜宾模型
KeyWord
New-quality agricultural productivity; The total amount of agricultural carbon emissions; Mediation effect; Spatial Durbin model
基金项目
页码 27-39
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贾扬平, 郑骏川. 农业新质生产力对农业碳排放的影响机制分析 [J]. 农业与食品科学. 2025; 5; (1). 27 - 39.

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