International Journal of Mechanical Engineering

Through the statistics of the one-time inspection qualification rate of products produced in 12 consecutive batches of a military parts production line, it is found that the time series has inherent regularity and random volatility, GM(1,1) model and grey weighted Markov model are respectively selected to predict the qualification rate. The results show that the relative error of grey weighted Markov model for prediction is only 1.08%, which is obviously better than 4.91% of GM(1,1) model. The small error probability and posterior error ratio of the former are 1.00 and 0.12 respectively, which are better than 0.83 and 0.50 of the latter. The prediction accuracy of the former is significantly better than the latter. Finally, the excellent grey weighted Markov model is used to predict the qualification rate of the next 6 batches.

Quality qualification rate; GM(1,1) model; Weighted Markov model; Prediction method